Define the aircraft segment, reporting period and metric before interpreting resale trends. Distinguish new shipments, member transactions, asking prices and forecasts; compare timing using actual net cash and uncertainty rather than a universal market prediction.
Start with a defined aircraft market and a dated question
Aircraft resale conditions differ by aircraft class, model, configuration, condition and the evidence being measured. A report about business-jet transactions cannot establish the sale price of an older piston single. A count of new factory shipments cannot establish used-aircraft depreciation. Before asking whether prices are rising or falling, define the aircraft and the decision: setting an asking price, evaluating an offer, planning an exit or deciding when to buy.
For a financing discussion, the relevant question is often narrower than the headline. Can this particular purchase be supported by its documents, condition, available cash and proposed lending terms? For a seller, an attractive gross price may still produce less cash after payoff, selling costs, repairs and additional holding time. Use market evidence to inform those decisions without treating a forecast as an available offer.
This guide separates dated industry observations from a practical comparison method and an entirely fictional seller example. It does not supply current appraised values, guaranteed negotiating discounts or an investment forecast. Refresh the evidence near the actual decision date; the reporting period matters as much as the publication date.
Read the 2026 reports within their actual scope
GAMA's September 3, 2026 release reports first-half 2026 new-aircraft shipments compared with first-half 2025. It lists 786 piston airplanes, down 3.1%; 289 turboprops, up 7.8%; and 383 business jets, up 8.2%. These are shipment categories, not a database of used-aircraft closing prices. The different directions also illustrate why a single all-aircraft trend can obscure important distinctions. See GAMA: first-half 2026 new-aircraft shipments.
IADA's July 27, 2026 release reports 746 business-aircraft transactions closed by its accredited dealers in the first half of 2026, 21% above the comparable prior period. It combines member-reported activity with a perspective survey. Neither the transaction count nor surveyed expectations should be presented as a measured price change for every aircraft owner. See IADA: reported first-half 2026 business-aircraft transactions.
IADA's October 5, 2026 forecast describes selective demand and constrained availability for desirable preowned business aircraft, using a September 2026 assessment and outlook through September 2027. That is an association's market assessment and forecast, not a completed transaction for your aircraft. Its discussion of policy, financing and supply constraints provides context rather than a universal buy-or-sell instruction. See IADA: September 2026 assessment and 2026-2027 forecast.
Together, these sources support a disciplined reading method: identify the population, period, metric and whether an observation is reported activity or an expectation. They do not support a blanket claim that all used piston prices have fallen by a particular percentage, that every seller has leverage, or that waiting until a certain month reliably produces a discount.
Build a comparable-aircraft file rather than a screenshot collection
Start with a defined comparison group. Record model and variant, year, installed equipment, total time, engine and propeller history, records, damage or repair disclosures, location and sale conditions. Keep a separate field for the evidence source and date. If a comparison is weak, explain why instead of allowing it to carry the same weight as a well-documented match.
A public asking price shows what a seller requested at a point in time. It does not prove a buyer paid that amount. A listing that disappears may have sold, been withdrawn or moved to another channel. The same aircraft can appear in several places or be relisted. Use aircraft identity and listing history to avoid counting those appearances as independent supply.
When closed-sale information is available, ask what supports it and what the reported amount includes. A price may need context about equipment, delivery, repairs or unusual terms. Keep unverified broker commentary labeled as such. A smaller set of reliable comparisons can be more useful than a large spreadsheet whose transaction status is unknown.
| Observation | What it can inform | What remains unproven |
|---|---|---|
| Documented relevant completed sale | A dated comparison with stated aircraft and terms | That your aircraft will achieve the same result |
| Current asking price | Seller positioning and available alternatives | Actual transaction price or buyer acceptance |
| Listing disappearance or relisting | A question for further investigation | A confirmed sale, sale date or price |
| Industry transaction report | Activity in the reported population and period | Every model's pricing or your negotiating outcome |
| Survey or forecast | Participant expectations and possible scenarios | A future completed sale or guaranteed direction |
Keep the file reproducible. Someone else should be able to identify the aircraft, find the observation and understand the adjustment question. Do not manufacture an exact dollar adjustment for an avionics package or maintenance status without supporting evidence. Where no good comparison exists, record that uncertainty and discuss a valuation approach with an appropriate specialist.
Distinguish supply, activity and price metrics
Inventory counts can help describe choices, but define whether they count unique aircraft actively offered in a specified segment. Days on market require a consistent starting point and treatment of relistings. Price reductions require a starting asking price and an observation period. None of these metrics alone supplies an achieved transaction price.
For a buyer, track the alternatives that actually meet the mission and diligence requirements. A large number of aircraft outside your usable configuration may not create meaningful choice. For a seller, record qualified inquiries, document requests, inspections, offers and reasons a process stopped. That information can reveal a documentation or condition problem that a headline market statistic cannot resolve.
Review the same metrics over comparable periods. An apparent surge can reflect a changed data source, a different aircraft mix or duplicate listings. Use counts and definitions alongside percentages. An association's aggregate activity change should not be silently converted into appreciation for a specific tail number or a promised amount of financing collateral.
Compare sale timing using net cash, not the highest imagined price
Consider a completely fictional seller who can settle at a $600,000 gross price now. Assume a 5% selling commission, $7,500 of other closing costs and a $300,000 debt payoff. Selected cash remaining is $262,500: price less $30,000 commission, $7,500 costs and $300,000 payoff. These are invented assumptions, not actual offers, standard fees or an aircraft valuation.
Now assume waiting three months costs $4,000 each month and results in a $620,000 completed sale. Keep the payoff and closing costs unchanged purely to isolate the scenario. After $31,000 commission, $7,500 closing costs, $300,000 payoff and $12,000 holding cash, selected cash is $269,500. The $20,000 higher gross price produces only $7,000 more selected cash.
| Selected cash item | Sell now | Wait, higher price | Wait, unchanged price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Assumed completed sale price | $600,000 | $620,000 | $600,000 |
| Assumed 5% commission | $30,000 | $31,000 | $30,000 |
| Other closing costs | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 |
| Debt payoff | $300,000 | $300,000 | $300,000 |
| Additional holding cash | $0 | $12,000 | $12,000 |
| Selected net cash | $262,500 | $269,500 | $250,500 |
Under exactly these assumptions, a future price of approximately $612,631.58 is needed to match the immediate $262,500. Solve 0.95 times future price, less $7,500, $300,000 and $12,000, equals $262,500. The threshold is arithmetic, not evidence that a buyer will pay that amount. At an unchanged $600,000 price, waiting leaves $12,000 less selected cash.
The assumed holding cash includes selected interest, storage and insurance rather than principal amortization; payoff is held constant. In a real comparison, update the actual payoff and reconcile principal payments so they are not counted twice. Add tax effects, repairs, transaction changes and the value of personal use when relevant. This simplified example includes no investment return, discounting or prediction of market movement.
Make condition and documentation part of pricing
Engine time is one input, not a countdown guaranteeing a fixed number of reliable hours. Ask the technical reviewer to consider the applicable maintenance framework, calendar history, records, observed condition and coming events. Do not convert a nominal time-to-overhaul difference directly into a universal price premium or maintenance permission.
Check records before treating two aircraft as equivalent. 14 CFR 91.417: maintenance records and transfer identifies applicable maintenance-status information and transfer requirements. For commercial evaluation, organize the evidence so a buyer can understand the actual history and unresolved questions. The logbook guide explains why the quality and continuity of that evidence matter to diligence.
For a financed purchase, an agreed price and a lender's collateral assessment can differ. Discuss the actual information needed and how any shortfall would be funded. Review the credit requirements guide and the financed resale process. AOPA Finance: understanding loan terms also helps distinguish payment schedules from contractual maturity; do not assume a future sale will automatically solve a balloon obligation.
Treat tax, fuel and technology changes as specific questions
Tax depreciation is a method of recovering eligible cost under tax rules, not a measurement of resale-price decline. IRS Publication 946: depreciation and placed-in-service framework addresses eligible property, basis, placed-in-service timing and other requirements. Ask a tax adviser to assess the actual aircraft, use, acquisition and disposition. A tax deduction does not make an aircraft free, guarantee appreciation or eliminate future tax consequences.
Likewise, fuel availability, modifications, avionics requirements and production changes should be investigated for the particular aircraft and mission. Ask what is currently approved, what is available at the relevant airports, what work would cost and what buyers in the relevant segment require. Do not apply a speculative technology discount to every aircraft without evidence.
For a seller, prepare a document package and obtain scoped advice before paying for a major project solely to influence price. For a buyer, preserve diligence and funding contingencies appropriate to the transaction rather than reacting to claims that every desirable aircraft must be purchased immediately. A measured decision can acknowledge competition without abandoning the information needed to own the aircraft responsibly.
Aircraft resale market questions
When is the best time of year to buy an aircraft?
There is no reliable universal calendar month for the best deal. Compare relevant available aircraft, evidence of actual terms, your readiness and the cost of waiting. Seasonal anecdotes should not outweigh mission fit, condition, records and a transaction you can properly diligence and fund.
Are used aircraft prices going down?
That requires a defined segment, period and price measure. The dated reports above address different populations and metrics; neither establishes a universal decline for all used aircraft. Refresh actual comparable-sale evidence near your decision and keep asking prices and surveyed expectations separate from verified closing prices.
How much do aircraft depreciate per year?
There is no defensible single annual market-depreciation percentage for all aircraft. Condition, model, configuration, maintenance events and market context matter. Tax depreciation is a separate calculation. Build scenarios using supported valuation inputs rather than applying a generic percentage as if it were an observed forecast.
What aircraft hold their value best?
Define the ownership period, comparison group and all acquisition and sale costs before comparing results. A popular model can still require expensive work or sell poorly in a particular condition. Assess documented evidence and mission suitability; this guide does not rank models by an unsupported guaranteed retention percentage.
Should I wait for prices to drop before buying?
Compare a workable current acquisition with realistic waiting scenarios, including alternative travel costs and uncertainty. A lower future asking price is not guaranteed and may describe a different aircraft. Prepare the financing and diligence file now so timing remains a deliberate decision rather than a response to an unverified forecast.
How does engine time affect resale value?
It affects the comparison alongside calendar history, condition, applicable maintenance requirements and documented work. Request qualified technical review and relevant sale evidence. Do not assume each remaining advertised hour has a fixed value or promises reliable service; use the actual aircraft's evidence and expected expenditure instead.
What is aircraft bonus depreciation and how does it affect the market?
It concerns accelerated tax cost recovery for eligible property under applicable rules, subject to the actual facts. Tax policy can influence purchase timing, but it does not guarantee a particular market-price change. Have a tax adviser verify current eligibility, basis, use, timing, elections and disposition consequences rather than relying on a market headline.
Is now a good time to sell my aircraft?
Compare current evidence, readiness and likely selected net proceeds with the cost and uncertainty of holding. The fictional example shows why a higher later price may produce only a modest improvement. Consider planned maintenance, debt obligations and personal use; a broad industry forecast cannot decide the sale of your particular aircraft.
Bring evidence to the next discussion
Maintain the comparable-aircraft file, a current condition summary and a cash-based transaction budget. Contact Jaken Aviation about financing preparation for a planned acquisition or replacement, using actual proposed terms rather than an assumed resale forecast.